NBA Stats

May 9 2014 11:09PM

End of the Road?

By Jay Cipoletti

The story of the First Round was the success teams had on the road, totaling a record 24 road wins in 50 playoff games.

Thus far the story of the Conference Semifinals is the importance of home-court advantage. For the first time in the Playoffs, Game 2 of Round 2 saw every home team win. Two of those winning teams went up 2-0 in their series, a strong indicator of a series win (93.8% historically).

The formula for winning on the road in the First Round proved to be very simple -- shoot better than the host. If unable to do that, get a lot more shots. As is proving to be the case thus far in the Conference Semis, simple isn't always easy.

Four Factor Margins – Conference Semifinals Road Wins (Game 1s)

Road TeameFG%FTA RateTO RatioOREB%
WAS1.9%0.0364.421.9%
LAC12.8%0.095-9.1-21.7%

The first two games of the Conference Semis continued the First Round trend -- road winners generally shoot a higher Effective FG%. The Wizards loss at Indiana went against type, albeit slightly, as the visiting Wiz outshot Indiana by 0.9%. That was not enough to overcome the substantial Free Throw disparity and the negative TO Ratio (a positive margin indicates a higher Turnover Rate than opponent, resulting in fewer possessions).

Four Factor Margins – Conference Semifinals Home Wins (Game 2s)

Road TeameFG%FTA RateTO RatioOREB%
WAS0.9%-0.1422.513.3%
LAC-5.2%0.024-2.1-16.1%
BKN-8.9%-0.0756.513.5%
POR-13.2%-0.0485.65.0%

The remaining three games produced expectable outcomes based on the negative eFG% margins of the visitors.

As the Playoffs continue, we will begin to take a closer look at the factors that contribute to eFG% margins, paying close attention to both who is taking the shots and where they are taking them.