NBA Stats

Jun 27 2013 5:39PM

Draft Preview: Remainder of First Round

By Jay Cipoletti

With the Shot Distribution difference fresh in our minds, a Four Factors look at the teams drafting outside of the Lottery.


Team Overview
2012-13 record: 38-44
Third place, Central Division
Lost in first round to Miami
Draft Picks
Round 1: #15
Round 2: #43

Four Factors
TeameFG%FTA RateTO RatioOREB%
Milwaukee47.6%0.23614.4%27.9%
Opponent49.2%0.26516.3%28.7%

The Bucks were the only Playoff team with a losing record (38-44), and a negative Net Margin of -1.4 to match. Defensively, it was only their 28th-ranked 28.7% Offensive Rebound Rate allowed that kept them from being a solid playoff defense (102.3 DefRtg). Offensively, only the Grizzlies shot worse in the Restricted Area and they took 2,055 Mid-range shots, far more than the Playoff team average of 1,779.

NEEDS: Shot creator and distributor, post scorer, defensive glass eater
MOCK DRAFTS SUGGEST: Sergey Karasev
FOUR FACTORS SUGGESTS: Michael Carter-Williams, Shane Larkin, Dennis Schroeder, Isaiah Canaan



Team Overview
2012-13 record: 41-40
Third place, Atlantic Division
Lost in first round to New York Knicks
Draft Picks
Round 1: #16

Four Factors
TeameFG%FTA RateTO RatioOREB%
Boston50.3%0.26315.3%20.1%
Opponent48.2%0.29215.9%26.7%

The uncertainty surrounding their roster, Rondo's return from injury and the direction the front office will take makes previewing the Celtics' draft a likely exercise in futility. Nevertheless, we can draw insight from the way they played last season. They shot just well enough (50.3% eFG) for their No Offensive Rebounding policy to work, allowing them to defend at a Playoff-caliber level (100.4 DefRtg). They need to find easier points to up their anemic 101.1 Offensive Rating -- among Playoff teams only the Bulls and Grizzlies attempted fewer threes.

NEEDS: Pure shooter, Corner 3 specialist
MOCK DRAFTS SUGGEST: Dennis Schroeder
FOUR FACTORS ALSO SUGGESTS: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Reggie Bullock, Tim Hardaway Jr, Allen Crabbe



Team Overview
2012-13 record: 44-38
Second place, Southeast Division
Lost in first round to Indiana
Draft Picks
Round 1: #17, #18
Round 2: #47, #50

Four Factors
TeameFG%FTA RateTO RatioOREB%
Atlanta51.7%0.24415.6%22.2%
Opponent49.6%0.23715.9%26.4%

Two mid-round value picks in a draft considered light at the top but deep in the middle could have a huge impact on the Hawks organization. No pressure, right? Atlanta shot better than the average playoff team (51.7% eFG) on the strength of their 64.5% mark in the Restricted Area and 42% rate from the Corner, yet only managed a subpar 102.7 Offensive Rating, below the League average. Their 0.244 FTA Rate and 22.2% Offensive Rebounding Rate kept them from easy, and extra, scoring opportunities. Defensively, they defended well at the rim and in the corner, which bodes well for them to maintain their Playoff-caliber 101.8 Defensive Rating.

NEEDS: Rim finisher, Garbage man (offensive rebounding machine)
MOCK DRAFTS SUGGEST: Shabazz Muhammad, Jamal Franklin, Kelly Olynyk
FOUR FACTORS AGREES WITH: Franklin (0.560 FTA Rate) and Olynyk (0.497 FTA Rate)



Team Overview
2012-13 record: 24-58
Fifth place, Central Division
Did not make the playoffs
Draft Picks
Round 1: #1, #19
Round 2: #31, #33

Four Factors
TeameFG%FTA RateTO RatioOREB%
Cleveland47.3%0.26514.6%28.1%
Opponent52.3%0.30416.1%27.4%

The Cavs won the possession battle this season, a hidden positive for a team that won only 24 games. Their 14.6% Turnover Rate topped the League average of 15.3%, while they forced opponents into a 16.1% rate. Their offensive rebound rate of 28.1% also topped the League average of 26.5%. Where they struggled was in Effective Field Goal Percentage -- their 47.3% mark was well below the League average of 49.6% while their 29th-ranked eFG% defense allowed opponents to shoot 52.3% eFG and rebound 27.4% of their misses. (Assuming they took a big man with the first overall pick)

NEEDS: Improved Defensive rebounding, Corner 3 specialist
MOCK DRAFTS SUGGEST: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Tim Hardaway Jr, Reggie Bullock, Steven Adams
FOUR FACTORS AGREES



Team Overview
2012-13 record: 45-37
Second place, Central Division
Lost in conference semifinals to Miami
Draft Picks
Round 1: #20
Round 2: #49

Four Factors
TeameFG%FTA RateTO RatioOREB%
Chicago47.0%0.25915.4%29.4%
Opponent47.7%0.27814.8%26.4%

The Bulls lived off their defense and second-chance scoring opportunities to offset their second-worst 47.0% eFG. The return of Derrick Rose changes that dynamic quite a bit, enhancing the value of a spot up shooter. No team attempted fewer than the Bull's 1,254 3-point attempts ... six teams attempted more Above the Break 3s alone. Conversely, only scoring-challenged Philadelphia and Phoenix took more Mid-range jumpers than Chicago.

NEEDS: Pure shooter
MOCK DRAFTS SUGGEST: Tim Hardaway Jr, Tony Snell, Glen Rice Jr
FOUR FACTORS AGREES



Team Overview
2012-13 record: 43-39
Third place, Northwest Division
Did not make the playoffs
Draft Picks
Round 1: #14, #21
Round 2: #46

Four Factors
TeameFG%FTA RateTO RatioOREB%
Utah49.2%0.28115.6%28.8%
Opponent50.1%0.29815.6%26.8%

The Jazz finished two games ahead of the Mavericks despite identical Offensive Ratings (103.6) and a slightly worse Defensive Rating (104.3). Utah allowed a League-worst 43.8% Corner 3-point percentage and like the Mavs, sent teams to line at a very high rate (0.298 FTA Rate). Utah NEEDS to add perimeter defenders to reduce their foul rate and close out on Corner 3-point shooters.

NEEDS: On ball defender, Rim protector that doesn't foul
MOCK DRAFTS SUGGEST: Shane Larkin, Jeff Withey, Lucas Noguiera, Gorgui Dieng
FOUR FACTORS AGREES WITH: Withey (2.7 FC/40), Dieng (3.3 FC/40)



Team Overview
2012-13 record: 49-33
Second place, Atlantic Division
Lost in first round to Chicago Bulls
Draft Picks
Round 1: #22

Four Factors
TeameFG%FTA RateTO RatioOREB%
Brooklyn49.8%0.29915.9%30.9%
Opponent50.3%0.23814.6%26.3%

Brooklyn made the Playoffs with the second-highest Defensive eFG% (50.3%) due to below average Defensive eFG in all three high value shot zones -- Restricted Area, Corner 3 and Above the Break 3. They allowed fewer shot attempts from both 3-point zones, putting their defensive focus squarely at the rim. Offensively, their 105.0 OffRtg is right on the Playoff average -- a fully healthy Deron Williams should maintain or improve that mark.

NEEDS: Rim protector
MOCK DRAFTS SUGGEST: Gorgui Dieng, Mason Plumlee
FOUR FACTORS AGREES



Team Overview
2012-13 record: 49-32
First place, Central Division
Lost in Conference finals to Miami
Draft Picks
Round 1: #23
Round 2: #53

Four Factors
TeameFG%FTA RateTO RatioOREB%
Indiana47.9%0.29316.2%30.3%
Opponent45.3%0.26014.4%25.4%

Indiana had the best defensive FG% in the Restricted Area, Corner 3s and Above the Break 3s, making their League-best 45.3% Defensive eFG even more impressive. Their starting five logged a 12.1 Net Margin in the regular season, upping that to 14.8 in the Playoffs including a 12.6 Net Margin (109.5/96.8) in their series with the Heat. A healthy Danny Granger gives them versatility and depth; adding a defensive back up for Hibbert makes them a very likely title contender.

NEEDS: Rim protector, versatile depth
MOCK DRAFTS SUGGEST: Shane Larkin, Isaiah Canaan, Tony Mitchell
FOUR FACTORS AGREES WITH: Mitchell (Excellent Defender on Synergy)
FOUR FACTORS ALSO SUGGESTS: Jeff Withey, Rudy Gobert



Team Overview
2012-13 record: 54-28
First place, Atlantic Division
Lost in conference semifinals to Indiana Pacers
Draft Picks
Round 1: #24

Four Factors
TeameFG%FTA RateTO RatioOREB%
New York51.5%0.25813.1%25.6%
Opponent50.8%0.28616.4%25.3%

The Knicks shot the ball like a Playoff team from deep and a Lottery team from in close, and defended shots the same way. Their playoff-worst 50.8% Defensive eFG was built on the back of their 26th-ranked 61.9% FG Restricted Area defense. The Knicks (103.5) are one of only four teams to make the Playoffs with a Defensive Rating above the league average of 103.1.

NEEDS: Rim protector
MOCK DRAFTS SUGGEST: Gorgui Dieng, Jeff Withey, Tony Mitchell
FOUR FACTORS AGREES WITH: Dieng (9.44 Blk%) and Withey (13.67 Blk%)



Team Overview
2012-13 record: 56-26
First place, Pacific Division
Lost in first round to Memphis Grizzlies
Draft Picks
Round 1: #25

Four Factors
TeameFG%FTA RateTO RatioOREB%
LA Clippers52.6%0.28615.6%28.8%
Opponent49.2%0.30617.2%26.5%

Defensive-minded Doc Rivers takes the reins on a team that led the NBA in Defensive TOV% at 17.2%. Only the Heat shot better in the Restricted Area; only the Nuggets matched the Clippers' 1st-2nd punch of 52.6% eFG and 28.8% OR rate. What kept the Clippers from being a top seed? 3-point shooting. They shot 3s more like a Lottery team -- 38.3% Corner 3, 34.7% Above the Break 3 are both below the League averages of 38.9% and 35.1%, respectively.

NEEDS: 3-point shooter
MOCK DRAFTS SUGGEST: Allen Crabbe, Glen Rice Jr
FOUR FACTORS AGREES WITH: Crabbe and Rice
FOUR FACTORS ALSO SUGGESTS: Tony Snell, Erick Green, Erik Murphy, Doug McDermott



Team Overview
2012-13 record: 31-51
Fifth place, Northwest Division
Did not make the playoffs
Draft Picks
Round 1: #9, #26
Round 2: #52, #59

Four Factors
TeameFG%FTA RateTO RatioOREB%
Minnesota47.3%0.30515.5%27.4%
Opponent51.1%0.24816.7%26.0%

The Milwaukee Bucks made the playoffs with 100.9 Offensive Rating/102.3 Defensive Rating, shooting 47.6% eFG. The T-Wolves are on the clock Thursday with the 9th selection after a 100.3 OffRtg/102.9 DefRtg, 47.3% eFG season. The difference? Milwaukee limited opponents to 57.1% in the Restricted Area and 35.6% from Corner 3s -- Minnesota allowed opponents to shoot 63.5% and 42.1% from the same zones. The Twolves' 29.2% mark on above the break 3s NEEDS improving as well. Assuming the T-Wolves went with Rim Protector with the 9th pick, there are plenty of pure shooters on the board here.

NEEDS: Rim protector, wing defender, pure shooter
MOCK DRAFTS SUGGEST: Sergey Karasev, Isaiah Canaan
FOUR FACTORS SUGGESTS: Allen Crabbe, Tony Snell, Erick Green



Team Overview
2012-13 record: 57-25
Second place, Northwest Division
Lost in first round to Golden State Warriors
Draft Picks
Round 1: #27

Four Factors
TeameFG%FTA RateTO RatioOREB%
Denver51.5%0.30815.5%31.4%
Opponent49.3%0.26416.1%28.2%

Denver took 3,316 Restricted Area shots -- only the Rockets managed more than 2,700 -- and they shot 62.0%, above the Playoff average of 60.4%. Add being the top OR% team in the NBA at 31.4% and the Nuggets scored at an elite level (107.6 OffRtg). Defensively, they allowed 618 Corner 3 attempts, 113 more than any other Playoff team, a key factor in their 102.0 Defensive Rating.

NEEDS: Perimeter defender, wing length
MOCK DRAFTS SUGGEST: Rudy Gobert, Nate Wolters, Lucas Noguiera, Tim Hardaway Jr
FOUR FACTORS SUGGESTS: Tony Mitchell (87Th percentile Spot Up defender; 79th percentile Post Up; 98th percentile Isolation)



Team Overview
2012-13 record: 58-24
First place, Southwest Division
Advanced to NBA Finals
Draft Picks
Round 1: #28
Round 2: #58

Four Factors
TeameFG%FTA RateTO RatioOREB%
San Antonio53.1%0.25815.1%20.5%
Opponent48.0%0.23515.3%25.1%

No organization has done more with late picks over the years than the Spurs. There is no reason to believe that won't continue this year. The Spurs defended like you would expect an intelligent team to defend -- they limited good shots and defended them superbly, limiting opponents to 56.5% in the Restricted Area and 37.1% on 420 Corner 3 attempts. Offensively, they played smart as well, living in the RA circle and beyond the 3-point line while minimizing their shots from Mid-range.

NEEDS: Another high IQ interchangeable part, shot creator
MOCK DRAFTS SUGGEST: Jeff Withey*, Giannis Adetokunbo
FOUR FACTORS SUGGESTS: Dennis Schroeder, Isaiah Canaan, Pierre Jackson, Nate Wolters, Mike Muscala
* Four Factors rates Withey very highly overall due to his elite Blk% and ability to convert blocks into live ball possessions



Team Overview
2012-13 record: 60-22
First place, Northwest Division
Lost in second round to Memphis
Draft Picks
Round 1: #12, #29
Round 2: #32

Four Factors
TeameFG%FTA RateTO RatioOREB%
Oklahoma City52.7%0.33815.9%26.7%
Opponent46.9%0.25415.2%26.6%

As they were with the 12th pick, the Thunder are looking to fine tune and leverage their League-leading 11.0 Net Margin. They can do that in this spot with a versatile match up nightmare, provided one is still on the board, a specialist in the Corner 3 mold, or a shot creator that allows their star-studded lineup to get even better looks.

NEEDS: Matchup nightmare, shot creator, Corner 3 specialist
MOCK DRAFTS SUGGEST: Tony Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, Ricky Ledo
FOUR FACTORS AGREES WITH: Mitchell
FOUR FACTORS ALSO SUGGESTS: Pierre Jackson, Nate Wolters, Erik Murphy, Doug McDermott, Christian Watford



Team Overview
2012-13 record: 25-57
Fifth place, Pacific Division
Did not make playoffs
Draft Picks
Round 1: #5, #30
Round 2: #57

Four Factors
TeameFG%FTA RateTO RatioOREB%
Phoenix47.7%0.23416.1%27.0%
Opponent51.2%0.27415.9%28.1%

Only the Pacers and Rockets turned the ball over more than the Phoenix Suns. Those playoff teams were able to overcome their sloppy ballhandling by being one of the top shooting teams (Rockets) and the NBA's best defense (Pacers). The Suns didn't have either as a fall back option. While they struggled defensively, they are another team whose greatest need is on the offensive end, where they need a high usage ballhandler to reduce their Turnover Rate and not only make shots but create good shots for teammates. If Kendall Marshall can grow into the role of ball protector and shot creator, grabbing a scorer in this draft could be the way to go. Assuming they chose a scorer with the 5th pick, plenty of ballhandler/shot creators remain on the board here.

NEEDS: Reliable ballhandler, shot creator
MOCK DRAFTS SUGGEST: Pierre Jackson, Ricky Ledo, Giannis Adetokunbo
FOUR FACTORS AGREES WITH: Jackson
FOUR FACTORS ALSO SUGGESTS: Isaiah Canaan, Nate Wolters, Lorenzo Brown, Ray McCallum, Peyton Siva, Matthew Dellavedova